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R72 • Lesson 102 of 105

Estimation & Reasonableness

Developing number sense to check if answers make sense in context

Reserve & Extensions • K-12

Prerequisites: E08, M16, M17

Key Concepts

  • estimation
  • reasonableness
  • number sense
  • mental math
  • approximation

Estimation and Reasonableness

Not every math problem requires an exact answer. In everyday life -- shopping, cooking, budgeting, science -- quick estimates are often more useful than precise calculations. More importantly, estimation helps you catch errors: if your calculator says a $3.50 item costs $350.00 after tax, your number sense should set off alarm bells.

Rounding Strategies

The simplest estimation strategy: round numbers before computing.

Worked Example 1: Rounding to Estimate

Estimate: 487 + 312 + 196

Round to the nearest hundred: 500 + 300 + 200 = 1000

Exact answer: 995. The estimate is very close.

Estimate: 38 × 52

Round: 40 × 50 = 2000

Exact answer: 1976. Again, close enough for a quick check.

Front-End Estimation

Front-end estimation uses only the leading (leftmost) digits, then adjusts with the remaining digits.

  1. Add the front-end digits (leftmost place value).
  2. Estimate the sum of the remaining digits.
  3. Combine the two estimates.

Worked Example 2: Front-End Estimation

Estimate: $3.87 + $5.42 + $2.19

Front-end: $3 + $5 + $2 = $10

Adjust: $0.87 + $0.42 + $0.19 is roughly $1.50

Estimate: $10 + $1.50 = $11.50

Exact: $11.48. Front-end estimation with adjustment is very accurate.

Compatible Numbers

Compatible numbers are numbers that work well together -- they divide evenly, add to round numbers, or are easy to compute mentally.

To estimate 7,342 / 8, think: "What is close to 7,342 that divides nicely by 8?" Try 7,200: 7,200 / 8 = 900. Or 8,000 / 8 = 1,000. The exact answer (917.75) is between these estimates.

Order of Magnitude

An order of magnitude estimate tells you the general size -- is the answer in the tens, hundreds, thousands, or millions? This is the most basic reasonableness check.

Order of magnitude = the nearest power of 10

The population of a city: order of magnitude 105 or 106. Your height in millimeters: order of magnitude 103.

Fermi Problems

Fermi problems (named after physicist Enrico Fermi) ask you to estimate quantities that seem impossible to know, by breaking them into pieces you can estimate.

Worked Example 3: A Fermi Problem

How many piano tuners are there in Chicago?

  1. Population of Chicago: about 2.7 million, so roughly 1 million households (2-3 people per household).
  2. Fraction with pianos: maybe 1 in 20 households = 50,000 pianos.
  3. Tuning frequency: each piano tuned about once per year = 50,000 tunings/year.
  4. Tuner capacity: a tuner can do about 4 pianos per day, 250 working days/year = 1,000 tunings/year.
  5. Number of tuners: 50,000 / 1,000 = about 50 piano tuners.

The actual number is estimated at 100-200, so our order of magnitude (101 to 102) is right.

Common Mistake

Students often think estimation means "guessing." It does not. Good estimation uses number sense, rounding, and logical reasoning. An estimate of 38 × 52 should be close to 2000 -- not "a few hundred" or "ten thousand." If your exact answer and your estimate are wildly different, one of them is wrong.

The Reasonableness Check

After solving any problem, ask: "Does this answer make sense?" If you calculated that a car traveling 60 mph covers 3 miles in 2 hours, something is wrong. If you found the area of a bedroom to be 50,000 square feet, that is a football field, not a bedroom. Always sanity-check your results.

Practice Problems

1. Estimate: 4,821 + 3,197 + 1,988

Solution

Round: 5,000 + 3,000 + 2,000 = 10,000. (Exact: 10,006.)

2. Use compatible numbers to estimate: 6,391 / 7

Solution

6,300 / 7 = 900. (Exact: 913.)

3. A store receipt shows: $12.95 + $4.50 + $8.99 + $3.25. Estimate the total before looking at the register.

Solution

Round: $13 + $5 + $9 + $3 = $30. (Exact: $29.69.)

4. Fermi problem: About how many words are in a typical 300-page novel?

Solution

A page has roughly 250-300 words. Using 250: 300 × 250 = 75,000 words. (Typical novels range from 60,000 to 100,000 words, so this is reasonable.)

5. A student calculates the area of a rectangle 12 m by 8 m and gets 960 m2. Is this reasonable?

Solution

No. Quick estimate: 10 × 8 = 80 m2. The correct answer is 12 × 8 = 96 m2. The student likely made an error (perhaps multiplying 12 × 80 instead of 12 × 8). Estimation caught the mistake.

Summary

Overview